The Appearance and the Wager Sterling and Marquis on the Problem of Pragmatism
The Appearance and the Wager
Sterling and Marquis on the Problem of Pragmatism
Theoretical foundations: Grant C. Sterling (Eastern Illinois University). Analysis and synthesis: Dave Kelly. Prose rendering: Claude (Anthropic). 2026.
In January 2021, on the International Stoic Forum, Steve Marquis and Grant C. Sterling conducted a four-message exchange under the heading “Stoic Pragmatism — a modern approach to the dilemma of what is the right thing to do.” The exchange is short, occasional, and unresolved. It is also a case study in exactly the kind of displacement that the corpus elsewhere traces at civilizational scale: the substitution of justification-procedure for correspondence as the measure of a belief’s standing. What happens between Marquis and Sterling in miniature is what Steve Fuller, writing decades later about Rorty, describes happening to the whole of Western philosophy. The value of the exchange is that it shows the substitution being resisted, not merely completed — and shows the resistance itself under pressure.
Marquis’s Wager
Marquis opens by recalling an old dispute with Sterling over whether the Stoic Sage requires something approaching omniscience to select the right action. His resolution is a scope restriction. Certainty of fact, he argues, is not available in ordinary deliberation and was never really required — what is required is knowledge of what is significant to the choice, not knowledge of the whole state of the cosmos. He calls this his “free body diagram”: the engineer does not model every force acting on a structure, only the ones that matter to the tolerance in question.
From this Marquis draws his self-description: “I am at heart a pragmatist and this is Stoic pragmatic rationalism.” But the claim is bounded, and the boundary matters. Marquis restricts pragmatic judgment to questions of non-value fact — the empirical circumstances a choice depends on — and explicitly excludes questions of value from the same treatment: “concerning matters of value, we can know with certainty.” He is not proposing that moral truth itself be measured by usefulness. He is proposing that under factual uncertainty, action on what “appears” most probably true, arrived at through something like cost-benefit or risk assessment, satisfies the Stoic requirement of correct judgment without requiring the Sage to be omniscient.
In his second message Marquis extends the point to pathos: much of what makes a choice feel like a genuine dilemma, on his account, is not real balance between options but pathos obstructing what would otherwise be straightforward discrimination. Reduce the pathos, and the apparent dilemma resolves itself. This is consonant with the corpus’s own treatment of pathos as an obstruction to correct judgment rather than a source of moral information — Marquis is not introducing a foreign element here, only applying it to epistemic rather than strictly ethical judgment.
Sterling’s Declination
Sterling’s reply is explicit about where he stands relative to the label: “Although I would not describe myself as a pragmatist, my views are not far from Steve’s here.” He then offers three theories of knowledge, each consistent with an inerrant Sage, each explicitly flagged as his own construction rather than a claim about settled ancient doctrine.
Theory 1, Skeptical Dogmatism, restricts belief to what is certain and permits action without belief for everything else — one can eat the apparent sandwich at the apparent lunch hour without committing to either proposition as believed.
Theory 2, Pragmatic Dogmatism, is Sterling’s formalization of Marquis’s position: it redefines error not as having a false belief but as having an irrational one. The Sage who reasons correctly from her evidence remains inerrant even if the belief she arrives at later proves false, because inerrancy is relocated from the content of the belief to the rationality of the process that produced it.
Theory 3, Internal Content Dogmatism, is the theory Sterling identifies as his own preference. On this account the Sage forms no belief about the external state of the world absent certainty — she believes only about the appearance itself. The oar half-submerged in water appears bent; the Sage does not believe the oar is bent, and does not believe it is straight. She believes “the oar appears bent” and “oars that appear bent in water are often straight” — propositions that are, Sterling notes, certainly true, because they are about the appearing, not about the external fact.
The architectural function of Theory 3 is not incidental. It is the mechanism by which Sterling preserves correspondence (C5) under conditions of practical uncertainty. The belief still corresponds to something real — not to the external state of affairs, which remains unknown, but to the fact of the appearance itself. Nothing is asserted that outruns the evidence, and nothing is surrendered to mere justification-in-the-absence-of-truth. Sterling closes by proposing that the three theories converge on the same practice of ethical choice regardless of which is adopted — a move that settles the practical question without settling the theoretical one.
The Contested Point
Marquis’s reply does not accept the settlement. He grants Theory 1 the most sympathy, reads it as vindicating his own long-standing insistence on withholding judgment absent certainty, and reads Theory 2 as simply a restatement of how the scientific method already operates. But he presses directly on Theory 3: “the statement it ‘appears’ to be the case is always true but a trivial rewording of the pragmatic approach.” His charge is that “appears” functions in Sterling’s usage as a disclaiming device — a way of avoiding commitment to any claim about the external fact while still, in practice, acting exactly as if the appearance were the fact. If that is right, Theory 3 has not escaped the pragmatic maneuver Sterling declines to name himself with; it has only relocated the same maneuver one level down, from belief-about-the-world to belief-about-the-appearance, while cashing out in the identical practice: act on what appears most probably true.
This charge is not answered in the thread. Sterling’s own closing move — that the three theories converge in practice — is available to him before Marquis’s objection arrives, and is not revisited afterward. The exchange ends with the objection standing.
Corpus Significance
The interest of this exchange for the corpus is not biographical. It is structural. “When Philosophy Changed the Subject” traces how Pragmatism, at civilizational scale, substitutes the question “what works” for the question “what is true,” and how that substitution — once made — quietly converts every field it touches from a discipline of recognition into a discipline of construction or justification. Marquis’s Theory 2, endorsed by Sterling as a formalization of Marquis’s own view, performs exactly this substitution at the level of individual epistemic practice: error is redefined from “false belief” to “irrational belief,” and the Sage’s standing is secured by the rationality of her procedure rather than by the truth of her conclusion. That the substitution appears inside an ISF exchange between two convinced Stoics, one of them the corpus’s own theoretical source, indicates that the displacement pressure Fuller describes at the level of academic philosophy operates at the level of individual reasoning as well. It is not confined to professional philosophers changing departments’ assumptions. It recurs wherever an agent under uncertainty must decide what counts as a justified belief.
Marquis’s objection to Theory 3 is best read in this light. He is not simply scoring a rhetorical point. He is asking whether Sterling’s preferred theory actually holds the line against the substitution, or whether “appears” is doing the work that “justified” does in Theory 2 — securing inerrancy by redefining its target rather than by preserving correspondence to the external fact. The corpus does not treat this question as settled by Sterling’s own preference. Whether Internal Content Dogmatism in fact preserves C5 in the relevant sense, or merely relocates the pragmatic substitution one level inward, is left here as an open point in the record rather than resolved by appeal to what Sterling personally favored. The exchange demonstrates the disagreement; it does not adjudicate it.
Theoretical foundations: Grant C. Sterling (Eastern Illinois University). Analysis and synthesis: Dave Kelly. Prose rendering: Claude (Anthropic). 2026.

